Just the facts: why Greens are winning
Are the Greens in a winning position to elect Caroline Lucas?
Caroline is favourite to win the Brighton Pavilion MP election. Greens beat all the parties across the whole city in June 2009's Euro poll with 31.4% city-wide as the graph below shows.
What the results - and the experts - say
Although the Labour Party are trying to frighten voters into voting for them, respected polling organisations are backing the Greens' chances to win - and so are the bookies.
In December 2009 the Green Party commissioned national polling company ICM Research to undertake a telephone poll of 533 voters matched to the local profile of voters in the constituency.
The Greens were ahead of all the other parties with an 8% lead in the constituency over the second placed Conservatives.*
35% of voters in the poll said they would be likely to support the Greens with the Conservatives on 27%, Labour on 25% and LibDems on 11%. Read more here.
Major betting chains Skybet, Paddy Power and William Hill all had Caroline as favourite to pip the Tories into second place, with Labour trailing third.
In September 2009 Politics Home, a Westminster political news service, published its annual poll of marginal constituencies. It is forecasting a Green win in Brighton Pavilion constituency.
- In the recent European Election of 2009 in the city, the Greens were clear winners - winning 31% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 22% and Labour on just 15%.
- We hold more council seats than any other party in Brighton Pavilion constituency – nine to Labour’s five and the Tories’ six.
- And the Greens came first across the constituency in the May 2007 council elections, winning 30% of the vote.
Euro poll result June 2009
Votes weren't counted on a constituency level, but in Brighton Pavilion constituency, where Caroline is standing, the Green vote is likely to have been much higher.
Euro-elections are not the same as general elections, but such a strong city-wide result suggests a likelihood of a Green win in Brighton Pavilion, where Green support is highest.
But we need your help to make it happen.
Remember, one more Tory or Labour MP won't make a big difference, but an independent green voice - a Green MP - would make a 'world' of difference.
Contact our local office on 01273 766 670 for more information about ways you can get involved.
Note:
*ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 533 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 16-21st December 2009. Interviews were conducted across the political constituency of Brighton Pavilion and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Brighton Pavilion adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
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.jpg "Numbers of councillors by party in Brighton Pavilion 2007 elections")
Greens ahead on councillors: there are more Green councillors in Brighton Pavilion constituency than any other party.
Greens' 8 point lead over Conservatives: ICM Poll Brighton Pavilion constituency December 2009*
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